The SP500 should test 1210 as early as tomorrow given the nature of today's reversal. That should be the biggest downside i see for a while, as the Santa Rally will cream all the shorts and doom and gloomers into the end of December. For now, its a test of 1210 then sideways action in the 1225-1220 range for much of the week. Next Tuesday, Fed Day, will give this market the fuel to push higher to 1250.
I will be looking to get long on friday and will load up many speculative plays.
Lookn to Buy FXE, Line, Pal, and Ree December Call Options.
The money printing wont stop stop and the dollar will be sacrificed.
CIAO CIAO DOLLAR... You've been sacrificed
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Friday, November 26, 2010
Will There Be a Santa Rally?
I expect one as i believe we could see Dow 12k by January 2011.
After a volatile week of going nowhere for two weeks and the filtering out the noise of a potential Korean Civil War, we are still trading above the 50dma. In Elliot wave terms, we are in wave 4 correction, which is notable for its oscillations. If we break out next week to above 1210 that would set in motion the Santa Rally and we could see 1300 by January.
If history is any guide, we should see a Monday breakout or consolidation.. as the two worst Thanksgiving Mondays were in 2000 and 1973..both bear markets.. not the case now.
After a volatile week of going nowhere for two weeks and the filtering out the noise of a potential Korean Civil War, we are still trading above the 50dma. In Elliot wave terms, we are in wave 4 correction, which is notable for its oscillations. If we break out next week to above 1210 that would set in motion the Santa Rally and we could see 1300 by January.
If history is any guide, we should see a Monday breakout or consolidation.. as the two worst Thanksgiving Mondays were in 2000 and 1973..both bear markets.. not the case now.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Never Fought the Fed
Wall St. Adage- Dont Fight the Fed
Is it really wisdom or just plain old follow the herd mentality? This adage will be tested in the future, so far so good.
Well Summer has pasted, where Bear Market Paranoia was entrenched in all our minds this summer, including my own. The summer falloff corrected some of the bull market gains and provided the necessary doubt in most investors minds to fuel a new high, forcing them to chase or in most cases cover their shorts.
Forecasts still look rosy.
I see a top forming by next week, as the SnP should hit 1250. Then a correction into the end of December, followed one final push into March 2011, where the bull market top will reveal itself as the cycles from low (March 2009) to high (March 2011) will once again rein supreme, as other past cycles have proven.
Is it really wisdom or just plain old follow the herd mentality? This adage will be tested in the future, so far so good.
Well Summer has pasted, where Bear Market Paranoia was entrenched in all our minds this summer, including my own. The summer falloff corrected some of the bull market gains and provided the necessary doubt in most investors minds to fuel a new high, forcing them to chase or in most cases cover their shorts.
Forecasts still look rosy.
I see a top forming by next week, as the SnP should hit 1250. Then a correction into the end of December, followed one final push into March 2011, where the bull market top will reveal itself as the cycles from low (March 2009) to high (March 2011) will once again rein supreme, as other past cycles have proven.
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
September to Remember
One more day and September will be registered in the record books as one of the greatest abnormal rallies in many decades. But remember just as fast the market ramped up, it could easily crash back into place.
Look for a firm selloff to begin Friday as more skeletons will be coming out of hiding and make October 2010 feel like a reenactment of October 2008.
Look for a firm selloff to begin Friday as more skeletons will be coming out of hiding and make October 2010 feel like a reenactment of October 2008.
Saturday, May 8, 2010
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Monday, April 12, 2010
Calling a Short Term Top
The market has finally appeared to show the pattern i was finally looking for. And now i have firm conviction we trade down for the next two weeks, contrary to CNBC's prediction.
Sunday, April 4, 2010
GREAT QUAKES!
There will be an addition of five big quakes occurring in 2010 after the recent Mexican earthquake.
A notable soothsayer sees.
A notable soothsayer sees.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Diamond Top has formed!
The Jan 2000 top was marked by a Diamond top formation. Well today it has formed again!
The Dow, S&P, and Canadian stock index have all formed a diamond top. And it doesn't sit well for the markets.
If we break 10825, the average decline from a diamond top formation is 21%. So Good Luck market bulls.
For the bulls to press on, we need to see another attempt to break 10,950.
The Dow, S&P, and Canadian stock index have all formed a diamond top. And it doesn't sit well for the markets.
If we break 10825, the average decline from a diamond top formation is 21%. So Good Luck market bulls.
For the bulls to press on, we need to see another attempt to break 10,950.
Sunday, March 28, 2010
Weekly Quote on US Spending
"They say that when the party gets going you need to take the punch bowl away. Well this is the dullest party I've ever been to and I'm an Accountant."
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday's Quote
"Bear Markets want to hurt everyone."
It is quite typical for significant tops to announce themselves early, and actually occur late.This is a tool of Bear Markets to kill and discourage shorts, because Bear Markets do not want anyone to make money, Longs or Shorts.
It is quite typical for significant tops to announce themselves early, and actually occur late.This is a tool of Bear Markets to kill and discourage shorts, because Bear Markets do not want anyone to make money, Longs or Shorts.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
NEW UPDATE: to clarify previous pot
If we do not get a sell off soon, i have reason to believe we rally to 11,100 in the next three weeks into mid april.
Major tops usually take a lot longer time to transpire than we anticipate. So, even though indicators are signaling a sell off soon, that move may be delayed.
We have a bearish head and shoulders pattern in the GDX (Gold miners) which leads me to believe gold will sell off during its seasonal bearish time of year. More often than not Gold sells off from May to August.
In summary: This market looks like it can make new highs. However, in the not to distant future (three - four weeks) I believe we correct for 6 months, all the way down to 8,500 level.
Major tops usually take a lot longer time to transpire than we anticipate. So, even though indicators are signaling a sell off soon, that move may be delayed.
We have a bearish head and shoulders pattern in the GDX (Gold miners) which leads me to believe gold will sell off during its seasonal bearish time of year. More often than not Gold sells off from May to August.
In summary: This market looks like it can make new highs. However, in the not to distant future (three - four weeks) I believe we correct for 6 months, all the way down to 8,500 level.
Monday, March 15, 2010
A Major Move IS DUE!
The EURO vs Dollar looks to be setup for a major move after consolidating for a number of weeks.
Even though it's probably more prudent to wait, i'm leaning towards more weakness in the Euro. My hunch is tomorrow after the FOMC announcement, the dollar will "FIRM UP" pretty dramatically. This coincidentally comes in line with the spring equinox trend change move that is due in the markets.
So, the dollar will get stronger and the markets will tank. Still looking for a catalyst for sellers to come into this market as this light buying raises serious doubt that a rally further can continue.
Last week was also the 5th lightest volume week ever! Not to mention we had the longest strip of up days in a 20 years.
Even though it's probably more prudent to wait, i'm leaning towards more weakness in the Euro. My hunch is tomorrow after the FOMC announcement, the dollar will "FIRM UP" pretty dramatically. This coincidentally comes in line with the spring equinox trend change move that is due in the markets.
So, the dollar will get stronger and the markets will tank. Still looking for a catalyst for sellers to come into this market as this light buying raises serious doubt that a rally further can continue.
Last week was also the 5th lightest volume week ever! Not to mention we had the longest strip of up days in a 20 years.
Sunday, January 3, 2010
Topping Action Occuring
Simply put after a major bottom in a secular bear market like we saw last year typically the stock
market will rally back up and take back a good half to two-thirds of its losses and then stall out and go
sideways for at least 6-8 months. It then either breaks out and goes on another huge tear for a few
months or rolls over and begins another bear market.
I’ll show you the examples in a minute, but I want you to realize first what this means is that the
market is likely to put in a peak within the next few weeks (if it hasn’t already, it is possible) and then go
sideways for at least the first two quarters of this year. This sideways pattern will either mark a
consolidation phase within this current cyclical bull market that will be a prelude to another huge rally
or else will mark a stage three topping phase.
I
market will rally back up and take back a good half to two-thirds of its losses and then stall out and go
sideways for at least 6-8 months. It then either breaks out and goes on another huge tear for a few
months or rolls over and begins another bear market.
I’ll show you the examples in a minute, but I want you to realize first what this means is that the
market is likely to put in a peak within the next few weeks (if it hasn’t already, it is possible) and then go
sideways for at least the first two quarters of this year. This sideways pattern will either mark a
consolidation phase within this current cyclical bull market that will be a prelude to another huge rally
or else will mark a stage three topping phase.
I
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