Dollar is the driving force behind OIL's Move, Don't assume otherwise

The rate of change in the Dollar has not been seen appreciating at this pace in quite some time (back in '08 was the last time and never before that). This is happening mainly because every other central bank is easing, meanwhile we "look" to be embarking on tightening.

2 reasons the Fed doesn't need to tighten and probably won't raise rates until 2016:
       1. By ending QE and not purchasing mortgage backed securities, that is in essence tightening.
       2. The dollar's appreciation guarantees low inflation for the next year

The Dollar Index hit 100 this past week. Huge.
Looking at it versus the Euro, the 1.08 was a level i thought we had support, but with many humans trading and behavior becoming extremely bearish, i believe we overshot temporarily and will revisit 1.08 and eventually 1.10 before the end of the month.

That will give a a reprieve to oil's slide lower and will allow it to rally to $65-70 into June before rolling over again. Oil and the Dollar move tit for tat.

As i mentioned in the previous post.. now until June will be an extremely volatile time trading, so stand aside.

My take away is if OIL can't close below $44 for 3 days, its done going lower. However if it stays below $44 for 3 days we will quickly drop to low 30s.

I believe OIL takes off higher in a big way once FOMC meeting passes on Wednesday (in 3 days).

That means i'm bearish for the short term on the dollar (mean reversion) and bullish on Oil. We'll see